Assessing Population-Level Effects of Anthropogenic Disturbance on a Marine Mammal Population

The Population Consequences of Disturbance (PCoD) model is a conceptual framework used to assess the potential for population-level consequences following exposure animals disturbance activity or stressor. This four-step process, progressing from changes in individual behavior and/or physiology, health, then vital rates, and finally effects. Despite its simplicity, there are few complete PCoD models available any marine mammal species due lack data parameterize many steps. Here, we present an application migrating humpback whales exposed simulated commercial seismic survey scenario. We approached two ways; first, sequentially forwards through steps basing our assessment on lactating females. cohort was considered be most vulnerable terms energetic costs disturbance, likely influence change population growth future breeding success. Field measurements behavioral responses air guns previous study were agent-based (ABM). ABM estimate probability response, where response defined as migratory movement female-calf pairs, duration resulting delay migration. estimated migration females created with which results approach suggested low surveys humpbacks. Working backwards framework, investigated “worst case” scenarios that could potentially lead effect. started increasing calf mortality assumed time greater than 48 h would increase risk. determined context this occur (resting area) tested within ABM. illustrates how can make management decisions regarding animal populations anthropogenic stressors.